An Upcoming IPO Could Soon Surpass NVIDIA As The World’s Most Valuable Company (It’s Not SpaceX)

David MoadelWed, May 27, 2026 at 4:02 PM UTC

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Gavin Baker, founder of Atreides Management, argues that Anthropic will eventually surpass NVIDIA (NVDA) as the world’s most valuable company based on frontier AI model dominance.

Anthropic’s Claude could eventually displace NVIDIA as the world’s most valuable company, depending on whether enterprise AI spending shifts from the compute layer to model intelligence over the next several years.

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The biggest IPO conversation right now centers on SpaceX's reported June 12 listing. Gavin Baker, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Atreides Management, thinks investors are watching the wrong name.

On a recent episode of the Invest Like the Best YouTube channel, Baker argued that Anthropic, the private AI lab behind Claude, has a more dynamic trajectory than SpaceX and is the most credible long-term candidate to eventually surpass NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) as the world's most valuable company. Baker's thesis hinges on where AI economics ultimately concentrate.

That's a striking claim. NVIDIA currently sits at a market capitalization of $5.2 trillion, with the stock up 55% over the past year. Baker's case rests on where AI value ultimately accrues and how fast Anthropic is compounding.

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Baker's Big Number on Anthropic

Baker's editorial punchline was a single comparison. "The three highest profile SaaS companies founded in the last 10 years are Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), and DataBricks. Anthropic just added their combined business in one month."

The supporting numbers, per reporting and industry estimates Baker referenced, are eye-catching. Anthropic reportedly started the year at a little over $10 billion in annualized revenue and is now at a $45 billion annualized revenue run rate.

That acceleration is difficult to model even by AI-era standards. Baker positions Anthropic's growth curve as the most aggressive enterprise software ramp ever recorded, with Claude capturing significant share of frontier model usage across coding, agentic workflows, and enterprise deployments.

The Valuation Setup Against SpaceX

Anthropic recently raised at a $900 billion valuation. Baker's view was that market demand would support a raise closer to $1.8 trillion if the company wanted to price at that level.

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That estimated demand-implied valuation lands in roughly the same zip code as SpaceX's reported IPO target. Baker's argument is that Anthropic's underlying business is growing far faster than SpaceX's, making the comparison less about size today and more about slope.

Note that I have not independently verified those figures (the $900 billion raise, the $45 billion run rate, the $1.8 trillion demand estimate). They are reported numbers and Baker's analysis, respectively.

Why This Could Surpass NVIDIA Over Time

The bull case rests on a specific thesis: AI value accrues most to whoever has the leading frontier model. If Claude maintains its competitive position against OpenAI's GPT, Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Gemini, and Meta Platforms' (NASDAQ:META) Llama, the argument is that model intelligence captures more enterprise spend over time than the compute layer that trains it.

NVIDIA's franchise is staggering. Its most recent earnings report showed Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with data center revenue of $75.25 billion per its SEC filing. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang described "the largest infrastructure expansion in human history" as accelerating at extraordinary speed.

Baker's counterpoint is that compute could commoditize over a multi-year horizon as custom silicon from hyperscalers and rivals matures. If that happens, the dollar split between "the model" and "the chips that train the model" could shift toward the model.

What to Watch

Anthropic remains private, has no confirmed IPO date, and surpassing NVIDIA would require both substantial continued growth at Anthropic and a stall or relative decline in NVIDIA's market cap. Frontier model leadership has also changed hands multiple times in the past two years, so assuming Claude stays at the top is itself a forecast.

Prudent investors tracking this thesis can watch four things: any Anthropic S-1 filing, the next round of frontier model benchmark releases pitting Claude against GPT and Gemini, enterprise AI revenue disclosures from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Web Services and Google Cloud (Anthropic's two largest distribution partners), and whether enterprise AI spend migrates from compute toward model intelligence over the next several quarters. Each of these data points will help validate or undercut Baker's framing.

Still, that framing may prove to be too optimistic. The takeaway is that the most consequential IPO story of the next year may not be the one dominating headlines today, and NVIDIA shareholders should understand the long-term thesis their stock is being measured against.

Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.

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Source: “AOL Money”